Who will make the College Football Playoff?

The Allstate Playoff Predictor breaks down which teams have the best chance to make this season’s College Football Playoff.

11/10/2021

The second College Football Playoff rankings have been revealed. Oklahoma may be out now, but the Sooners have great odds to move up.

But just because something is probable doesn’t mean it will happen. We’ll let you determine the future.

For the past seven years, the Allstate Playoff Predictor has been painting a week-to-week picture of which teams have a realistic chance to be one of the four teams in the College Football Playoff, and overall, it has been pretty accurate, if we do say so ourselves.

Using that stat and the criteria below to set the table, we give you the chance to pick a team and decide how its season will pan out. According to your choices, the Allstate Playoff Predictor will determine how likely that team is to be one of the four CFP semifinalists.

The 15 teams with the greatest chance of making the CFP are included.

Choose one team

These are the 15 teams with the highest percent chance to make the CFP, ordered from most to least likely.

How does {selected-team} finish the remainder of the regular season?

No team has ever made it to the playoff with more than one loss. Two-loss teams have an outside chance, but three or more losses all but exclude a team from the playoff, so that option isn’t on the table.



Which {team-value} does {selected-team} lose to?

The three toughest opponents on the schedule are listed here with the percentage chance {selected-team} wins. Choose {team-count}.

Does {selected-team} win its conference title game?

The College Football Playoff committee greatly values conference championships (24 of 28 CFP selections have been conference champs), but it’s not a requirement.



{selected-team}’s Chances

If the season plays out exactly as you’ve selected, the Allstate Playoff Predictor says this is your postseason outlook.

Sorry, this scenario either isn’t possible or did not play out in enough of the 200,000 simulations run by the Allstate Playoff Predictor to be analyzed.

{selected-team}’s Matchup Win Probability

These are your team’s chances to win every game left on its schedule, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.



Week 11 games that matter to the CFP race

Can Purdue upset a top-10 team for the third time this season? Will Oklahoma stay perfect? Will Michigan stay alive?

Editing by Matt Eisenberg

Produced by ESPN Creative Studio: Heather Donahue, Jarret Gabel, Alecia Hamm, Lori Higginbotham and Sarah Pezzullo.

Stats & Information: Matt Morris, Lauren Poe, Mitchell Wesson and Paul Sabin


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