An examination of the latest stats and polling reveals that if we continue on the current trajectory, we will not reach Biden’s goal.
An additional 1% of adults a week completing their first dose is the lowest since the CDC started tracking this statistic in mid-February.
On May 27 and before, the 7-day rolling average for new adults getting a first shot never dropped below 1.5%.
The problem is that the uptick looks to have been temporary, and it has occurred when we’re well short of Biden’s 70% target.
Simply put, the current weekly rate of vaccination will not get us to 70% by July 4. With just a month to go until July 4, the current vaccination rate will put the US at somewhere between 67% and 68% of the adult population with at least one dose by Independence Day.
To reach 70% by July 4, we’ll need a reversal of the current downward trend. We need to be averaging around 1.6% of the population getting their first dose each week from now until July 4. This is significantly higher than the vaccination rate this week.
Such a swing up is not impossible. Having 1.6% taking their first dose a week is actually pretty much what we had from May 14 to May 27. This is less than an additional 0.1 points more of the population needing to get a first dose a day than the rate that occurred during the week ending with the June 3 report.
The issue is that we really haven’t seen the vaccination rate pick up since they become readily available in April. We’ve only seen declines pause.
The percentage of people who have either gotten their first dose or would get one as soon as possible in Kaiser’s late April to late May poll barely jumped from 64% to 66%. It turns out that the latest campaigns to get people vaccinated (e.g. relaxing mask mandates for those vaccinated) don’t seem to have had much of an effect in the long run. Mainly, they got people who were going to get vaccinations to get them sooner.
To reach Biden’s 70% goal, it’s clear that some people will have to be convinced to get the vaccine in the next month. There is 4% (enough to just get the US 70% when added to the previously mentioned 66%) who either have a vaccine appointment scheduled or plan to get their first dose in the next three months.
The key over the next month will be for these unvaccinated people to have a sense of urgency to receive their first dose.