This week, ESPN betting analysts Eric Moody and Anita Marks, along with Stats & Information’s Seth Walder offer up their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook as of Sunday, unless otherwise noted.
New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11, 49.5)
Moody: Kenny Golladay is not listed on the Giants’ injury report for Week 11. He played on 83% of their offensive snaps and averaged 6.8 targets from Weeks 1-4 before getting hurt. Last week’s bye came at a perfect time for him and many Giants reporters have noted that Golladay has put in some really good practices this week. Against a Buccaneers secondary that allows the 11th-most passing yards per game, Daniel Jones should target Golladay frequently.
Kadarius Toney has been on a similar path to that of Golladay. He is also not listed on this week’s injury report. Back in Week 5, he caught 10 of his 13 targets for 189 yards against the Dallas Cowboys. Against Tampa Bay’s under-manned secondary, Toney could also succeed.
Although Mike Evans only caught 2 of 3 targets for 62 yards and a touchdown in a Week 10 game where the Buccaneers were constantly playing from behind, in his previous eight games he had averaged 8.0 targets and 68 receiving yards. Considering Chris Godwin is battling a foot injury and is listed as a game-time decision (and with Antonio Brown already ruled out), Evans could do quite well on Monday night. Rob Gronkowski may also be ready to shine, having averaged seven targets and 61.3 receiving yards when he’s been on the field and healthy.
Leonard Fournette should also continue to play a significant role in the Buccaneers offense. While playing on 60% of the team’s offensive snaps this season, he has averaged 17.8 opportunities (rushing attempts plus targets) and 85.5 total yards per game. Note that over New York’s last five games, Kenyan Drake, Darrel Williams, Chuba Hubbard, Darrell Henderson Jr. and Ezekiel Elliott have averaged 97.0 yards against the Giants defense.
Picks: Golladay over 45.5 total receiving yards (-120), Toney over 43.5 total receiving yards, Evans over 65.5 total receiving yards (-115), Gronkowski over 28.5 total receiving yards (-115), Fournette over 93.5 total rushing/receiving yards (-110)
Walder: When he was healthy, Gronkowski’s target opportunity far surpassed his Week 11 receiving line prop. He was averaging 46.1 expected receiving yards per game based on air yards, expected completion probability and expected YAC (NFL Next Gen Stats). Had Gronkowski never been injured, this would be a slam dunk over. Of course, he has been out with fractured ribs.
I could be wrong, but I imagine the Buccaneers — especially as Super Bowl contenders — would wait until Gronkowski were fully recovered enough to play significantly before allowing him to return to the field. If that’s true, and based on the way he was used earlier in the season, he should have a good shot to hit 30-plus yards.
Pick: Gronkowski over 29.5 receiving yards (-115)
Marks: The Giants are coming off their bye and will be getting Saquon Barkley back on offense along with offensive lineman Andrew Thomas. The Giants WR corps is also returning Golladay and Toney, giving Jones a much healthier arsenal.
On the other side of the ball, the Giants defense has been good over their last three games, allowing just 39 points, a 28% 3rd-down conversion rate, and only allowed three touchdowns in 13 red zone drives.
Picks: Giants +11, Giants (2-team teaser, +17), Jones over 240 passing yards (-115), Toney over 4.5 receptions (+120)